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More facts, less evangelism in warming debate

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Even for those of us who realise the human psyche is drawn to emotional claims of doom and gloom, it's easy to fall for the hype. Catch a few glimpses of the Christmas bush fires, the drought, Gore looking like an ageing Superman... See more » Even for those of us who realise the human psyche is drawn to emotional claims of doom and gloom, it's easy to fall for the hype. Catch a few glimpses of the Christmas bush fires, the drought, Gore looking like an ageing Superman impersonator predicting cities being swamped and headlines that Bondi beach is under threat. Add more headlines about the ostensible consensus among experts that humans are causing catastrophic global warming. Employees soon start to question the big companies they work for because, these days, big is synonymous with bad. The big bosses start embracing global warming so they look lean and clean in a competitive marketplace for goods, services and employees. People start calling on governments to do something. Governments then get drawn into the whirlwind of global warming, overreacting on the basis of emotion, not fact. Before Stern arrives, it's time to visit the other camps on climate change. Those who are sceptical of the degree and dangers of warming predicted by Stern and co. Those who point out there are benefits to global warming. And those who warn against regulatory overreach. Relegated to economic and scientific journals, the serious rebuttals of Stern rarely get a mention. Instead, the sceptics of the global warming orthodoxy are the deniers. But when The Boston Globe columnist Ellen Goodman recently wrote: "Let's just say that global-warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers", it unveiled the emotion and zealotry driving this debate. In fact, it's not a debate at all. If it were, we might see a headline along the lines of "Experts sink Stern" because that is precisely what a group of eminent scientists and economists did late last year. The Stern Review: A Dual Critique in the December edition of World Economics debunked Stern's claim that "much of the debate over the attribution of climate change has now been settled". It warned that Stern's exaggerated predictions depend on a selective and biased treatment of scientific sources and evidence. Stern's review is classic come-to-Jesus stuff for those searching for a utopian, post-carbon world. No cost-benefit analysis of global warming. No careful prodding of uncertain studies. Just end-of-the-world scenarios. And the saviour is Stern's prescription of hiked-up carbon taxes. Stern points to emissions driving global temperatures to dangerous levels. The critique of Stern points out that the rate of warming during the late 20th century was similar to an earlier natural warming period between 1905 and 1940, a period preceding industrial-driven greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the recent warming, according to these scientists, was of less magnitude than earlier millennial warmings during the medieval, Roman and Minoan warm periods. And a rapid rise in CO2 emissions for the two decades after 1940 was accompanied by a fall in temperature. That's right: cooler temperatures. In fact, scientists such as Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist, and Bob Carter from James Cook University point to the real possibility of global cooling should the sun revert to the lazier position associated with the Little Ice Age. The Russian Academy of Science has issued similar warnings. Stern predicts a global population of 15 billion by 2100. More people means more suffering. Yet, according to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, there is only a 2.5 per cent probability that world population will exceed 14.4billion by 2100. Fewer people means less suffering, but that doesn't suit Stern's exaggerated claims. Stern's executive summary points to anywhere from 15 per cent to 50 per cent of species facing risks of extinction if temperatures rise by even 2C. The critique points out that higher CO2 emissions will boost plant growth, promoting biodiversity that may assist ecosystems, something Stern ignores. The scientists conclude that Stern's assessment, based on studies that are "fraught with uncertainties", presents a "worse-than-worst scenario, based on a naive and one-sided appeal to literature". Stern's most glaring See less »

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More facts, less evangelism in warming debate

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